Welcome to my sleepers, busts, and breakouts section. I will be posting one player from a random section every day. Sometimes sleepers, sometimes busts, sometimes breakouts, so keep in touch with the blog to make sure you aren't missing out!
9/7/2016
Day 27: Sleeper
Chris Hogan
Chris Hogan has the opportunity to be the #2 receiver on the best offense in football. Yes, he is technically the 4th option, but there is a chance he could produce Brandon LaFell like numbers from two years ago. He isn't even being drafted in most leagues so look to take him in your last round or even after your draft. I wouldn't recommend taking him until after the draft in 10 man leagues, 12+ man leagues go ahead and draft him last or so.
9/4/2016
Day 26: Breakout
Michael Thomas
I think straight off the bat, Michael Thomas will have a huge role in the Saints offense. With only Brandin Cooks as the real competition, he could slide into the red zone target, especially with his 6'5" frame. He was a huge playmaker in college at the Ohio State University, and he looks to continue that role in his upcoming season in New Orleans.
9/3/2016
Day 25: Sleeper
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winson had a great year last year, and is looking to improve this year. He has a middle of the pack level of defenses he has to face, but he proved that he can be very good last year. He seems to me like a steady grower this year and should be looking at the 270-280 point range, good enough for top 12-ish.
9/2/2016
Day 24: Bust
Jamaal Charles
Once a favorite of mine, Jamaal Charles is now in the dust in my books. He isn't playing week 1, and if he is it will be a timeshare. Depending on how he feels the rest of the season, a timeshare could be in place for a lot of the year, especially since Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware have proven to be very capable backups. Lets just see how this injury plays out, but it doesn't look too good.
8/30/2016
Day 23: Breakout
Dak Prescott
With the Tony Romo injury, I truly believe Dak Prescott can emerge into somewhat of a Cam Newton or Russell Wilson like player who has a great arm and great athleticism. If he can add some rushing yards and TDs on the ground, Prescott can be a legitimate weapon in fantasy football. The best part? You can get him last round.
8/29/2016
Day 22: Sleeper
Will Fuller
Will Fuller has already proven in 2 out of his 3 preseason games why he was taken by the Houston Texans. He has had 2 big plays an his stats in his last 2 games he has had 140 yards and 2 TDs. I know it's only the preseason, but he clearly has some talent. Brock Osweiler came out and said that Fuller was a "very special football player," so I have confidence in him this year.
8/27/2016
Day 21: Bust
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Hill is someone to steer way clear of, because of how inconsistent he is. He didn't have two games straight of 10+ points even ONE time last season. He only has and upside at all because of his TD production, but that alone isn't enough for him to be ranked #41 overall in ESPN projections. Not a fan.
8/26/2016
Day 20: Sleeper
Tevin Coleman
Tevin Coleman could really see some work this year in the Falcons backfield. Even though Devonta Freeman was a pro bowler last year, and had a great season, Tevin Coleman is very well liked in the Falcons organization and could split backfield carries with Freeman this year. He could be a good replacement flex, or replacement RB2. I don't see Coleman being an extremely good RB, but I see him getting a chunk of the Falcons running work.
8/24/2016
Day 19: Breakout
Kelvin Benjamin
Kelvin Benjamin is coming back off an injury to a new looked Carolina team. The last time he was on the Panthers, they were a decent team, but now they are one of the Super Bowl favorites. I'm not sure why he is ranked so low when he finished with 1,000+ yards and 9 TDs in his first year. I think he will immediately become a factor in the Panthers offense, and be a main target alongside Greg Olsen.
8/23/2016
Day 18: Sleeper
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas has looked decent in the preseason, but I think he is being undervalued in rankings. I like Michael Thomas this year and think that he can easily turn into a Marques Colston figure for Drew Brees. The duo threat of the big strong Michael Thomas mixed with the quick shifty Brandin Cooks should be a nice mesh for the Saints offense and I see good years for both young receivers. This is more of a risky pick because he is a rookie, but no risk, no reward am I right?
8/22/2016
Day 17: Bust
Derrick Henry
To be fair, he isn't projected that highly on any board, but I don't think he will even have the slightest of roles in Tennessee. Demarco Murray has been the lead back for training camp and the preseason, and he has proven he can handle a heavy workload. He had 300+ carries with Dallas the year he finished as the #1 RB in fantasy. I wouldn't draft Derrick Henry unless you were handcuffing Demarco Murray.
8/21/2016
Day 16: Breakout
Keenan Allen
I can't believe I haven't written a piece about him already but, here we go. Keenan Allen proved himself as an elite receiver last year, finishing with 725 yards, 4 TDs, and 67 receptions in only 8 games. Do the math, those are INSANE stats. I would take Keenan Allen if you get the opportunity anywhere from the 26th pick and up. The worst that happens is you landed yourself a player who is going to have 100+ receptions and probably 1200+ yards. The flip side, you just landed yourself a monster who can surpass 1500 yards and 125 receptions and finish well within the top 10 receivers. I think this is an easy low risk-high reward player who should be taken in all leagues in early 3rd round or late 2nd round.
8/20/2016
Day 15: Sleeper
Kirk Cousins
Being taken around 133rd pick in ESPN projections, Kirk Cousins is another undervalued QB, like Eli Manning. In fact these two QBs are very close in ESPN rankings, and both are coming off career years. I expect big things from Kirk Cousins this year, especially with the emergence of Jordan Reed as a legitimate TE.
8/19/2016
Day 14: Breakout
Lamar Miller
In my honest opinion, Lamar Miller has a legitimate shot of finishing 1st in RB fantasy points at the end of the year. Going to an extremely run heavy offense, I expect almost 300 carries out of Miller, which would mean that he would be increasing his usage by at least 50%. If that translates to fantasy points, then we have a legitimate contender for RB King. If we're being realistic I think top 4 is a pretty good bet.
8/18/2016
Day 13: Bust
Carson Palmer
Playing in a tough defensive division, and on the back end of his career, I don't think Palmer will keep up his ageless wonder of the past 2 seasons. As much of a pleasant surprise it has been to see Palmer thrive after his injuries, I think we've seen the best of him and would only advise taking Palmer as a backup, not an every week QB. He should still have some good weeks, but my final verdict is that I won't be drafting Carson Palmer.
8/17/2016
Day 12: Sleeper
Christine Michael
I wouldn't advise taking him anywhere other than an end of the draft snag, but after watching ESPN's 28 Hour Fantasy Football Marathon, I think a timeshare is very possible between Rawls and Michael, which means Rawls might also have to move down in my rankings. I honestly am not sure how many touches Michael would get, but if it were to be a timeshare, he could fight it out with Rawls for the starting job. Seattle as an organization see a lot of talent in him, so I'm willing to go out on a limb here and say Christine Michael is a sleeper.
8/16/2016
Day 11: Breakout
Jarvis Landry
If you are talking about skill as a receiver, he is already there. He has the most receptions in his first 2 seasons ever, giving him the volume, so what is he missing? Touchdowns. He only had 4 receiving TDs last year, so if the volume and yardage keep up, Landry could move into the top tier of WR. If you add 4 TDs to his total last year, he would have finished with 168 fantasy points, good for 8th among receivers.
8/15/2016
Day 10: Bust
Devonta Freeman
Unlike Gurley, I mean this one. Devonta Freeman is going to be a BUST. I don't think he will be utilized the same way as he was last year, with Tevin Coleman right there ready to take the starting job. Devonta plays in a weak division, but if you look at his stats, he wasn't that consistent. If you take away the fact that he had 6 rushing TDs from week 3-4, you realize he only had 5 rushing TDs in the other 15 weeks combined. He does have receiving yards going for him, but I don't like Freeman this year.
8/14/2016
Day 9: Sleeper
Ryan Mathews
People aren't even looking Philly's way right now, but they have a really talented back in Ryan Mathews. Let's not forget that before his injury he was a 1,000+ yard RB. Back in the starting role, I see Ryan Mathews having a pretty good year. I don't see him being an insane RB, but I think probably a solid 9-10 points a week for Ryan Mathews is a good bet. I'm not going to go into the defenses of the NFC East because I think I have made it clear in my other posts just how bad I think they are, but that's an added bonus.
8/12/2016
Day 8: Bust
Todd Gurley
Bust is a relative term in this case because I think Gurley will still be a top 15 RB this year. What I mean by bust is he won't be what everybody expects from him. He has so many things stacking up against him starting with a rookie QB. He will be focused by opposing defenses and might struggle like he did towards the end of last season. Gurley is a very talented player, but the challenges he has to overcome is too much for me to look past.
8/11/2016
Day 7: Breakout
Carlos Hyde
Carlos Hyde had a pretty decent year last season before he got injured. Bringing in Chip Kelly will only help the running game in San Fransisco, and the offense should be focused around Carlos Hyde. The only problem I see here is the defensive division that the 49ers play in. I see Carlos Hyde overcoming this and being a top 15 RB in fantasy this year. Definitely worth the 3rd-4th round pick.
8/10/2016
Day 6: Sleeper
Eli Manning
Eli Manning is posed to have a huge year if he can keep his turnovers down. With one of the top five receiving cores in football, and a horrible defensive division, Eli can go off this year and potentially be a top 7 QB in Fantasy Football. Eli is a good pick anywhere past round 9 in my books, just because of his huge potential. Even though he has a history of being very inconsistent week to week. I believe Eli puts up another good 2-3 years.
8/9/2016
Day 5: Bust
Larry Fitzgerald
Putting Larry Fitzgerald on this list makes me sad because I really do hope he does well, but being ranked #30 on ESPN's receiver list is way too high. Sure, he had a great year last year but I think that he is officially no longer going to be a factor. There is always the chance that he defies all odds again but the likelihood of that happening for a second straight year is not high. I wish the best to old Fitzy but I wouldn't take him any earlier than picks 65-70.
8/7/2016
Day 4: Breakout/Sleeper
Sterling Shepard
Before you click off this page, thinking I am crazy, hear me out. There are a few reasons this could potentially be one of the biggest steals of the draft. The Giants have been reporting all week that Sterling Shepard has been making ridiculous catches and great plays throughout training camp. Sterling Shepard also has one Odell Beckham Jr. on his team to distract defenses, leaving more 1-on-1 opportunities for Shepard to capitalize on. The Giants are also a VERY pass heavy offense, and Eli has never been afraid to take shots downfield, so these triplets should have a fun year together. Add on the NFC East defenses, and this could end up being one of the best Giants offensive years ever.
8/6/2016
Day 3: Bust
Demaryius Thomas
He used to be the most consistent receiver in fantasy, but with Peyton Manning gone, and coming off a bad season, I really don't like Demaryius Thomas. Volume should be okay still, but a rookie Quarterback, with no proven RB isn't a good mix. This mixes in with a tough defensive division and I think Demaryius falls into the 39-50 range for picks. I love him as a player, but his days being a top 5 receiver are behind him.
8/5/2016
Day 2: Breakout
Matt Jones
With hardly any competition at the RB position in Washington and an extremely weak NFC East defensive division, Matt Jones has the opportunity to capitalize. He has the chance to become a solid top 15 RB and I think he could even finish top 10. He has the added bonus of being a catch passing back as well as a ball carrier, meaning he will get to play all 3 downs on most possessions. There might be some mixing in of Chris Thompson, but if Matt Jones can prove himself early on, there shouldn't be any real competition. I would say Matt Jones is a good pick anywhere after 50th pick.
8/4/2016
Day 1: Sleeper
Allen Hurns
Allen Hurns is being excruciatingly undervalued this year in the big analyst predictions and I don't agree. With a season like he had last year, I feel that he has no reason to be put at 80th in ESPN projections. He had 7 straight games with a touchdown catch last year which might be part of the reason he isn't projected anywhere near his previous stats, but this also gives him a lot of redzone potential and shows that he can get it done inside the 20. If you can snag Allen Hurns, even as early as 72nd pick it should pay off.
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